With negotiations entering a critical phase at COP30, the All Ireland Science Media Centre asked local experts to share their thoughts on conference and whether they expect any significant progress at the conclusion of the talks. 

Dr Breffní Lennon, Research Fellow at the Sustainability Institute, University College Cork, comments: 

“I did not come to this year’s Conference of the Parties with any real expectations, as so many previous COPs have been exercises in disappointment or have shown slow incremental progress. However, I had hoped we would be shifting away from the current pledge-based format to something more constructive and applied, and there has been talk here that this COP may be the start of a new style of Conference of the Parties. Speaking this morning, the Colombian environment minister Irene Vélez Torres describes the problem as essentially revolving around the “methodology of consensus” with the most ambitious agendas are repeatedly torpedoed by vested interests for the fossil fuel lobby. While there has been progress, we are still way off the 1.5 degrees promised in the Paris Agreement.

“If COPs did not matter, the current US administration would be here paying lip service to the climate crisis, but they are not because they know it is important for multilateral cooperation and it still has the potential for transformative change. What this COP and previous COPs have shown is that words really do matter. And they are still important to progressing global climate governance. We don’t have any real equivalent alternative. that is why certain country groups are fighting so hard to block any mention of “fossil fuels” or a “roadmap” to phasing out of fossils fuels in the current draft of the COP30 text. Though 80 countries back a “fossil-fuel roadmap” only 24 (including Ireland) have pushed back against the current draft text.”

Conflict of Interest Statement: Dr Breffní Lennon’s research is supported by the Environmental Protection Agency Ireland and Taighde Eireann – Research Ireland through the MaREI Research Centre for Energy,  Climate, and Marine at University College Cork.

Dr Neil Robinson, Lecturer in Net Zero Engineering, Queen’s University Belfast, comments: 

  • A roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels on the negotiating table at COP30. What would a commitment to this transition mean for Northern Ireland? 

“A serious transition away from fossil fuels requires Northern Ireland to better use its renewable energy resources, such as wind generation, to satisfy the bulk of its energy needs. The region currently aims for 80% of its electricity to come from renewables by 2030 – from April 2024 to March 2025 the real number was 43%, and this was actually a drop compared to the previous year, so continued investment is needed to get this contribution closer to 100%.

“For the average person this transition will mean our lives will become more electrified. This means some changes to our transport, with greater reliance on electric vehicles. We would also see changes in our building infrastructure, with gas boilers potentially phased out and replaced with electric heat pumps.

“The transition also presents opportunities for the local workforce to develop and apply green skills, and for new jobs within the region – these will be needed to develop and maintain a modernised electricity grid capable of distributing this renewable energy (this opportunity is currently being explored through the Northern Ireland Green Skills Action Plan). This grid would be stabilised by battery storage, and could potentially be supported by biomethane and hydrogen in a clean gas network. Biomethane is a particularly attractive area for development as it can provide an additional source of income from farming and agriculture.”

Conflicts of interest: I receive research funding from the NI Department for the Economy, I am a member of the NI Government’s Green Skills Action Plan lead group developing the plan’s communication strategy and approach, I hold an Honorary position at the University of Western Australia, From 2022 to Jan 2025 I held a Forrest Research Foundation Fellowship at the University of Western Australia.

Professor Peter Thorne, Professor of Physical Geography, Maynooth University, and Director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS group (ICARUS), comments:

“I wasn’t expecting a huge amount of this COP and I’m very unlikely to be pleasantly surprised. There are so many moving diametrically opposed positions on so many issues and even traditionally non-contentious issues such as the SBSTA research and systematic observations proved hard to agree. There will undoubtedly be the usual range of apparently eye-catching initiatives put forth. But at heart the key challenges will remain.

“Not enough countries showing anywhere near enough ambition, and even less evidence of actual action, on emissions reductions to keep warming well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels (at this juncture keeping warming below 1.5 is a pipe dream). Nowhere near enough financial assistance is being given by countries from the global north (those most responsible) to aid the global south (those most vulnerable). Still a reluctance to move off our addiction to fossil fuels (globally we still subsidise fossil fuel use more than moving to alternatives). No amount of window dressing will do more than present a mirage in front of these broader issues.”

Conflicts of interest: None