The 30th UN climate conference will kick off on 10 November in Belém, Brazil, ten years on from the historic Paris Agreement.

The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C was surpassed in 2024, and countries are due to present updated national commitments to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. World leaders including Taoiseach Micheál Martin, are gathering today for the Belém Climate Summit ahead of the main negotiations. 

The All Ireland Science Media Centre asked local experts to comment on the significance of the conference and key issues on the agenda.

Associate Professor Una Murray, University of Galway, comments:

“This is the first year in five that I’m not attending COP, and amid the streams of policy briefs, and advance versions of reports, I’m wishing I was there. COP is a unique space to understand what is happening globally, across key climate related themes that intersect such as agriculture, human mobility, and means of implementing climate change reductions. The process is complex. COP refers to the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC from 1992), with the Paris Agreement (2015) negotiated to operationalise it. COPs are held annually in different regions where countries meet to negotiate climate policy.

“What to expect at COP30 depends on where you are positioned geographically and politically, and which areas of climate action you follow. It is almost impossible to track every article under negotiation.

“At the centre of the Paris Agreement are Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are country’s own plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and adapting to climate impacts. However, Ireland’s NDC is part of the EU’s collective NDC, as the EU submits one joint commitment on behalf of Members States. This is why Ireland’s climate targets are often described as being shaped at the EU level. NDCs also indicate the support poorer countries need from richer ones, such as finance, technology, and training, referred to as ‘means of implementation’. When submitted to the UNFCCC secretariate, they are synthesized globally. Although only 64 NDCs are in for this period, collectively they fall short of what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, which is worrying. Optimistically the latest NDCs show increased ambition in reducing GHG emissions.

“Contentious negotiations are expected around the Baku to Belem Roadmap and the proposed $1.3 trillion/year by 2030 as a fixed amount of finance to help developing countries implement their NDC has not yet been agreed. Climate finance discussion are likely to be tense, given that poorer countries and Small Island States are disproportionately affected by climate change impacts, with less resources to adapt. Many of those who contributed least to climate change are suffering the most.

“Through our research at the University of Galway, I am particularly focused on displacement linked to climate events, and hope these issues are reflected in the negotiated texts. We also study climate finance and social protection as a mechanism to channel funds to those who need them the most. Finally, the concept of Just Transition is gaining prominence, emphasizing that climate action should be is inclusive and support those most affected.

“Other workstreams at COP30 include the Global Goal on Adaptation framework, although indicators for measuring adaptation have not yet been agreed. Around 100 indicators across 7 thematic adaptation areas (water, food, health, biodiversity, infrastructure, poverty, cultural heritage) will be negotiated by parties. This is just a snapshot of some of the issues under discussion at COP30. Our post graduate students at the University of Galway are following the process closely, including one international MA student who is there, serving as a negotiator for her country.”

Declaration of interest: Una is funded by Research Ireland at present. No other.

Professor Brian Ó Gallachóir, Associate Vice President of Sustainability, University College Cork, comments:

“10 years on from the Paris Agreement, COP30 is hugely significant as it is the first COP meeting to take place since the global stocktake of the collective progress towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. 

“The global stocktake confirmed that the Paris Agreement has successfully driven near-universal climate action by setting goals and sending signals to the world regarding the urgency of responding to the climate crisis. It also highlighted however that we are not yet collectively on track towards achieving the purpose of the Paris Agreement and its long-term goals. There is a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments in order to limit warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels – increasingly the discussion is shifting towards overshooting and then returning to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.

“Prior to the Paris Agreement, we were heading for a global temperature increase of 4 °C degrees above pre-industrial levels, now we are on track for a 2.1–2.8 °C increase. This is of course not enough.

“COP30 takes place set against a context in which the scale and severity of the climate crisis has never been clearer. Brutal climate-driven droughts, floods, storms and wildfires are hitting every nation harder each year, wrecking millions of lives and vital infrastructure, impacting significantly on economic growth and pushing up prices.

“Countries are required to bring new revised commitments to Belem in order to bridge the gap between where we are now headed and the agreed limit of global warming of 1.5 °C. About one third of countries globally (i.e. 68 countries that do not include Ireland) have submitted new Nationally Determined Contributions already and according to the UN, this new generation of NDCs show a step-change in terms of quality, credibility and economic breadth. A lot rides on COP30 as we are expecting the remaining countries to announce their new commitments at Belem. Another key topic of interest in Belem will be finance. For climate adaptation, funding is currently insufficient and the goal at COP30 is to agree a roadmap to mobilize 1.3 trillion dollars in climate finance will clearly be key at COP30.”

Declaration of interest: No conflicts of interest

Professor Peter Thorne, Professor of Physical Geography, Maynooth University, and Director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS group (ICARUS), comments:

“The Research and Systematic Observations session at COP30 will highlight warnings around i) the precarity of long-term observing systems which are key to keeping a check on the pulse of our warming climate and; ii) to the viability of long-term international coordination mechanisms such as GCOS, the World Climate Research Program and the World Meteorological Organization. 

“For too long we relied upon American benevolence to support huge swathes of our earth observation capabilities and their coordination. It is imperative that truly multilateral support be put in place to enable our ability to observe and understand the earth system. What you do not monitor you cannot understand. We must minimise any breaks in continuity of our ability to observe the climate system and continue to strive to address persistent gaps throughout the SOFF financing facility to which Ireland is a strong champion.”

Declaration of interest: I am Deputy Chair of the Global Climate Observing System

Professor Ken Byrne,  Department of Biological Sciences & Bernal Institute, University of Limerick, comments; 

“It is over three decades since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Its main objective of ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at the level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ remains elusive.”

“The Paris Agreement of 2016 raised hopes that progress could be made, but it’s aim of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels looks less likely as global temperature records continue to be broken. The science is clear, not only do we need to act now, we also know what we need to do. Hopefully, COP30 will bring new and tangible commitments that will help avert the climate crisis.”

Declaration of interest: No conflicts. Ken has contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Science Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. He is Co-Ordinating the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine-funded PeatFor project ‘Management of Peatland Forests for Climate and Biodiversity’. 

Dr Samantha Hallam, Oceanographer and Climate Scientist, Irish Climate Analysis Research UnitS (ICARUS), Maynooth University, comments:

“As world leaders gather for COP30 next week, the devastating impact of Hurricane Melissa will loom large over discussions. The storm, the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, made landfall in Jamaica as a category 5 hurricane on Tuesday, October 28, with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph, tearing through communities and leaving widespread destruction in its wake.

“Ocean waters in the region were about 1.4°C warmer than the 1979–2000 average. According to the TOPIM model that heat anomaly contributed to Melissa being roughly 40 mph stronger than it would have been under normal conditions—an increase that generated 1.6 times more destructive force and catastrophic damage across the island.

“Warm ocean waters are the fuel for hurricanes, and the Caribbean has been warming around 0.2°C per decade since 1965 associated with the increasing average hurricanes intensity of 5kts per decade observed. This year alone, the Atlantic has seen three Category 5 hurricanes, a level matched only once before, in the record-breaking 2005 season.

“In Jamaica, 32 people have been confirmed dead, with another 31 fatalities reported in Haiti. The death toll continues to rise. The western parishes of Jamaica suffered the worst of the storm. Power and water remain cut off, and many families are struggling to find food and medical supplies. Black River, close to where Melissa made landfall, is described as “ground zero”—a landscape of flattened homes and shattered infrastructure.

“The devastation is severe in Jamaica’s “Breadbasket” region, which produces much of the nation’s food. Long-term food shortages are likely, and recovery could take months or even years.

“Amid the tragedy, there have been acts of courage: residents rescuing neighbours Hurricane Hunter crews flying into the storm to collect critical data, and first responders working around the clock.

“At COP30, the crisis in the Caribbean has become an urgent reminder that climate change is not a distant threat but a present emergency. What is needed are bold emissions cuts and increased climate finance for less developed countries—those least responsible for global emissions but most vulnerable to their impacts.

“To support relief and recovery efforts in Jamaica, please donate at https://supportjamaica.gov.jm“

Declaration of Interest: None